Latest Analysis

Why Taiwan sits at the center of the US-China rivalry, how military buildups on both sides are accelerating the risk of conflict, and what historical parallels tell us about the path ahead.

How trade wars, tariffs, sanctions, and technology export controls fit the Thucydides Trap framework — and whether economic warfare between the US and China makes military conflict more likely.

How the race for artificial intelligence supremacy between the US and China mirrors historical arms races — and why it could be the most dangerous dimension of great-power competition yet.

Why the South China Sea is one of the most dangerous flashpoints in the US-China rivalry — island-building, freedom of navigation, and the risk of accidental escalation.

Rising tensions across multiple fronts have people asking the biggest question. Here's what 500 years of history and the Thucydides Trap framework tell us about the risk.

Nuclear weapons changed everything about great-power conflict. But as China expands its arsenal and new technologies emerge, can deterrence hold?

The world's largest navy, hypersonic missiles, stealth fighters, and nuclear expansion. How China's military modernization mirrors the arms races that preceded history's greatest wars.